Will Hubris Blind Us Again?

Al-Qaeda is run by very strategically savvy individuals. They are not stupid, and they are not to be underestimated. Al-Qaeda would like nothing less than for us to become drunk on what seems like victory to us in Iraq to ignoring the circumstances that can lead to failure and defeat on the global stage, including but not limited to Afghanistan.

You see, they know that when we claim victory, egos expand, and medals get pinned on swollen chests. We slap each other on the back and talk about the good old days of Abu Musa'ab Al-Zarqawi and the Islamic State of Iraq.

Al-Qaeda's leaders know that many Americans will rush to claim their share of the glory, and even politicians who were calling for pullouts a few months ago will agree that "the surge worked," and when they get into office, they can "bring home the troops" while claiming that they brought "victory to the American people in our time" in spite of the perceived errors of our current commander in chief.

With all of the dopamine running rampant in our leadership's brains, it will be easy for us to let our guards down in Iraq, thinking that the fight left and went to Afghanistan to fester there. We can really sock it to Al-Qaeda, can't we? Just one more country to go and Al-Qaeda is done! Oh, really?

Al-Qaeda is fighting a global jihad. That means car bombs in places where we don't have 150,000 troops, like Yemen or Pakistan.

The real war is that of ideas, and the battleground is our minds. Al-Qaeda's leadership understands this, and has taken into account material setbacks in Iraq and everywhere else they operate. Assuredly they have contingency plans. It takes a long time to condition minds, and what is a few decades to a Jihadist?

The material fight is wherever they can create instability and make headlines in the newspapers. Let's not think that Zawahiri and his friends are content to rot in caves in Northwestern Pakistan or wherever they are. They'd like to bring death and destruction to your neighborhood, or at least to your newspaper. It's the nature of the monster that they are. They know that they can't win militarily - but they can win in the press and on the global stage. This is just another dramatic act in the play for them.

You'd think we know these things - didn't we fund and arm them to fight against the Soviets in the 1980's? Al-Qaeda's idea of a war lasts 100 years. Our military leaders think that they can be fought and won in 12 month deployments, and our politicians think that the global war on terror will disappear when the messiah becomes president of the United States of America. Do you believe in change that much? Ayman Al-Zawahiri has a cave in Pakistan that he would like to sell you if you believe in change as much as he believes in his cause.

Let's not fall asleep and dream that we are victorious against Al-Qaeda quite yet. We are in the 3rd inning of a 9 inning game.

The battle for Afghanistan is the fourth inning. Getting Bin Laden and Zawahiri are the fifth inning. The reconstruction, development, and consolidation of Afghanistan are the 6th inning. The seventh through the ninth inning is when Islamic civilization repudiates extremism and denies it a place in their hearts and minds in favor of a better world for all of us.