Saturday, September 13, 2008

Where Is Prime Minister Nuri ((Al-Maliki))'s real power base?

Academia is still searching for answers as to why Prime Minister Nuri ((Al-Maliki)) was elected. Part of the answer lies in his tribal name chain, which is actually ((Al-Maliki)) ((Al-Muntafaq)). Another part of the answer lies in the fact that the ((Al-Muntafaq)) confederation is the largest tribal confederation in Iraq. Most academics still think that the ((Al-Dulaymi)) confederation is the largest.

The
((Al-Muntafaq)) has 832 original, non-attached known Iraqi sub-tribes out of the 4492 total in The Iraqi Arab Tribal Matrix (TIATM™). The ((Al-Muntafaq)) tribal confederation therefore represents about 18.5% of TIATM™, and it can be assessed that their tribal leadership represents the largest segment of Iraqi society.

Does this mean that approximately one in five Iraqi Arabs is from the ((Al-Muntafaq)) confederation?

The vote that put him in the
prime ministership may indeed have been more accurate than the opposition wishes to admit. Most political analysts believe that PM Nuri ((Al-Maliki)) was selected as a compromise candidate due to the fact that he was neither a Sadrist nor a member of SCIRI. While this indeed may be the case, it doesn’t cancel out the fact that the Prime Minister needed a large power base from which to operate. In Iraq, being a member of the largest tribe is certainly a benefit when running for national office and may have been the decisive factor leading to his emergence into the realm of Iraqi national politics.

It bears noting that the ((Al-Tikriti)) confederation, from which sprang the former dictator Saddam Husayn Majid ((Albu Nasir)) ((Al-Tikriti)), represents about .5% of The Iraqi Arab Tribal Matrix(tm). It seems that the 2006 elections were indeed democratic, as one of the smallest Arab tribal confederations in Iraq was replaced by the ((Al-Muntafaq)) confederation, which is the largest.

1 comment:

AKM said...

Perhaps in the 19th century, even larger than Shammar Jarba, al-Muntafiq (not muntafaq) was the most formidable tribal confederation in Iraq. It was also the first tribal grouping to be granted its own province (Liwa') by the Ottomans, admitting its status as a quasi-state (or as your friend al-`Azzawi argued, a social formation moving towards statehood until thwarted by a 'modernizing' Ottoman administration.)
However, the name means quite little today. The Sa`dun sheikhs were the first to fall "victim" to the Ottoman tribal fragmentation policies in the 19th century. They were granted their ancient tribal land as formalized "miri", moved to baghdad and became rent-seeking absentee landlords. A process that was repeated in several other locations.
As such, they gradually lost their connection to their tribesmen. effective administration of their lands was passed to smaller tribal groupings that began as "agents" for the Sa`duns, but eventually took hold of these properties.
The Banu Malik (from whom Maliki descends) were among these local clans, in the region of Kut and North of `Amara.
In that sense, the Muntafiq, despite being a major trunk for hundreds of clans, are a bit like a "myth of origins" today, with little connection to the actual social world.