Sunday, September 28, 2008

Defeating Al-Qaeda's Tribal Engagement Strategy in Iraq

Creating an insurgency is easier than fighting against one in Iraq, particularly if the grievances used to justify violence remain unaddressed by the Iraqi government.

One such grievance comes from tribal leaders who are ignored by the Iraqi government. Influence, or "wasita," is crucial for tribal leaders to ensure that they receive their share of resources from the government. Tribal leaders who are ignored by the government are shamed, and their legitimacy as sheikhs is threatened. Amongst the sheikh's many responsibilities is to ensure that his tribe is secure, prosperous, and growing. He also must ensure that his tribe is strong and can defend its territories from neighboring tribes who may wish to take resources from his tribe. If the government doesn't recognize a sheikh, what does that say to the sheikh's tribesmen? If the sheikh isn't important, then just how important is the tribesman? What can the tribesmen expect from the government if it doesn't recognize and communicate with his sheikh? Is this the message that the Iraqi government should be sending to its citizens?

When the government recognizes sheikhs from one tribe or sub tribe, and not the others, they are influencing the balance of power between and within tribes in a manner that may not be controllable. This is unwise policy, and has led to disaster for every state in the Middle East in modern times. Tribal leadership has a choice when it comes to its relationship with the state - they can defend it and stabilize it, or they can undermine it in a larger effort to destroy it. Tribal leaders will only defend the state if they have a real stake in it, which is to say, that the state provides vital resources to the tribes so that they can live on the same level as others. And yes, they will always want more.

'Abbas Al-'Azzawi, a great Iraqi scholar and tribal advocate stated "that which is ignored can't be healthy." His words that were written more than 60 years ago are still true today. Ignoring, or worse yet shunning tribal leaders is foolish.

We can't force the Iraqi government to adopt wise policies - it is populated with many politicians who, like many politicians in every other country, are greedy, self-serving, and corrupt. Iraqi politicians are fighting a great game to serve themselves a slice of oil money pie. However, the US has a military presence in Iraq that can execute wise policies. Our military leaders may not be great diplomats, but they are loyal, honorable, dutiful, and respectful. They understand integrity. Our military can fill the communication vacuum between the Iraqi government and the roughly 80% of tribal leader that are still unrecognized. If they don't, then Al-Qaeda eventually will. As I mentioned in previous articles, Al-Qaeda's senior leadership is strategically savvy. We must be as well.

I suggest that the Army open the doors to tribal leadership from all tribes and sub tribes. Vet their backgrounds, establish who's who, and listen to them. Use the Iraqi Arab Tribal Matrix and Sub Tribal Index to figure out where the sheikh is located in the tribal hierarchy, and correctly assess his potential power and influence. Never ignore a tribal leader, regardless of how small his sub tribe is. Find those who wish to create security, and empower them to do so. Encourage sheikhs to fulfill their historic roles as resolvers of disputes, keepers of the peace in their areas, and wise leaders. Empower them to do so. Test them often and continuously, but in a respectful and humble manner. We are to be their guests, and honest brokers who are there to explore mutual interests, of which there are many.

Tribes clash over resources, yet the US brings a tremendous amount of resources to the table. We can use our resources to create peaceful competition between all tribal leaders to secure their areas and wholeheartedly participate in the reconstruction process. The winner? The Iraqi people. The losers? Religious extremists! They don't have the resources that tribes need (unless they take over the Iraqi government).

Also, I think we need to cast off the image of being occupiers, and instead be their guests. We are already defending them and ourselves, with lives of our soldiers. I think tribal leaders will work with us if we treat them appropriately - with humility and respect. Many already are joining hands with our military for the sake of Iraqis, but there are at least 4500 sub tribes, and not all are participating yet. Tribal engagement for the counterinsurgent in Iraq is a gargantuan task. We have to overcome 5 years of global mind conditioning directed at showing how bad America is because we occupy Iraq. If we came as occupiers, perhaps through effective tribal engagement, we can leave as honored guests who will be welcome visitors in the future?

Tribal engagement is probably the most fundamental and important concept counterinsurgent operations in Iraq. Sheikhs, who are crux of tribal engagement strategies, have secular interests, and they are very concerned about their tribes and families. It follows that we should be concerned with sheikhs from all levels of the tribes. It boils down to this: Al-Qaeda doesn't have many resources, and they have kill lots of tribesmen. They also siphon leadership away from the tribal sheikh.

We have lots of resources, and we are still too lethal. Tribal engagement may enable us to drastically reduce military operations. Then, we can become resource allocators in Iraq instead of policemen. By empowering sheikhs through security arrangments, reconstruction, and resource allocation, we show tribesmen that we sincerely want them to live.

After a few years of tribal engagement along the lines described above, we can drastically reduce our troop presence. There is no fast forward button on this though - it's going to take many years.

When we ignore sheikhs, we dishonor them and open the door for Al-Qaeda and other terrorist groups to co-opt disenfranchised sub tribes into the insurgency. Al-Qaeda's tribal engagement policy is easy - find which tribal leaders hate the United States, bring them money and weapons, train their men, and execute terrorist operations. Their job is small scale, and can be executed with minimal resources.

Our job is harder - we have to find and establish friendly relationships with all tribal leaders and thus prevent the occurrence of communication vacuums. It's a large scale job that is going to entail a lot of forgiving and forgetting what has happened over the last five years, especially with many Sunni tribes.

Conversations with sheikhs, backed up with good will, cooperation and follow through on the ground will save American and Iraqi lives. But, we must destroy the image of ourselves as occupiers, and start acting like guests that bring life-giving resources. It is, after all, their country, so if we're going to be there, we might as well live up to our forefathers' legacies in Europe and Japan.

I think we need to reintroduce ourselves to Iraqis, but not like politicians reintroduce themselves over and over again to America. We need to be much more genuine and sincere - it's a matter of life and death. History is watching.

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